The Zune? Zune what?
Sure, it grabbed 9% market share in its first week, outpacing the former #2 player from Sansa. But it still trailed 12 flavors of iPod and a few flavors of the Sansa on Amazon.com:
The question now seems to be what kind of momentum will the Zune pick up? Will it be like most movies that hit the cinemplex: big in the first week, then sales fall off the cliff for the second week? Or will it be like “My Big Fat Greek Wedding” — slowly, ever so patiently gathering steam to ultimately set sales records in its class?
Or — the most entertaining and karma-laden option of all — will it occupy a permanent niche in the market? Perhaps making decent sales in a market dominated by a single player, where the sales folks break out the champagne when sales reach double digits, but otherwise mostly maintaining sales somewhere in the single digits.
I went into Target in Boston the week after it launched. The Target has 2 Zunes on an end cap in the electronics dept. with lots of shiny accessories. The Sony PS2, Nintento Wii, and Microsoft Xbox all had kids around them. But the Zunes? Huddling together for warmth beneath the cold fluorescent lights. Lonely and ignored.
After the Target visit, my bet is on Scenario #3.
Microsoft is patient enough, and has pockets deep enough, to fund even a money losing device well into the third millennium if they want to. Perhaps things would change radically if they actually brought out a radical, market changing device…
